Track record · closed signal

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — closed signal from December 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ORCL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$188.00 – $198.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$197.49Published — price the day we called it

$225.14Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$207.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$146.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$207.75

peak on January 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+5.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$146.02

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 25, 2025 – March 25, 2026

The thesis — published December 25, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$225.14

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$188.00 – $198.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$197.49

published December 25, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Oracle could get a meaningful short-term lift because analysts say revenue from work with OpenAI may grow a lot over the next few years, which attracts investor attention. There are signs many buyers are active, but the company's underlying health and recent trend are still weak, so wait for confirmation before investing heavily.

Primary drivers

OpenAI revenue headlines can keep investors interested
Many buyers are showing up, which helps push price
Corporate spending on cloud and AI can sustain the move
Weak company fundamentals mean be cautious and add with proof

How it played out

ORCL: the thesis stayed below target

Lyra published ORCL at $197.49 on 2025-12-25 with an expected 14% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to revenue headlines tied to work with a major model company, active buyers, corporate cloud and artificial intelligence spending, and weak fundamentals that argued for caution.

Inside the window, ORCL rose to $207.75 on 2026-01-13, a 5.2% peak gain. That stayed below the $225.14 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-25, the stock ended at $146.02. The thesis partially played out only in the early move, then missed the target and ended lower.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-22, TikTok finalized a U.S. joint venture that included Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX. On 2026-03-10, Oracle reported third-quarter results, and Business Insider wrote that the company raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $67 billion after exceeding investor expectations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ORCL signals