Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from December 24, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 24, 2026 — +1.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$34.86 – $36.82Entry zone — fair-value band

$36.46Published — price the day we called it

$39.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$41.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$37.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 50 days.

At window close

+1.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-5.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$37.14

last close inside the window, ended March 24, 2026

Peak price

$41.72

peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 24, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$39.74

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$34.86 – $36.82

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$36.46

published December 24, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust pays a 3.7% dividend and a valuation model estimates fair value near $58, so the current price near $36.8 looks cheaply valued. In uncertain markets, that visible valuation and steady income can attract buyers. Expect a gradual rise over 0-3 months rather than a sudden jump; lower interest rates would help.

Primary drivers

Dividend provides steady income while you wait
Valuation model suggests the stock is cheap and could draw buyers
Senior housing rents are steadier than many industries
Lower interest rates would likely lift REIT prices

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 50 days

Lyra published CTRE at $36.46 on 2025-12-24 with expected growth of 10% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a 3.7% dividend, a valuation model near $58, steadier senior housing rents, and lower interest rates as a likely support for REIT prices. It expected a gradual rise over 0-3 months.

Inside the window, CTRE reached the $39.74 target in 50 days. The peak was $41.72 on 2026-02-27, with a 14.4% gain. By 2026-03-24 it ended at $37.14. The published thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals