Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) — closed signal from December 23, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 23, 2026 — -3.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$313.85 Published $351.51 Target $302.06 Window close $349.00 Peak
$305.00 – $314.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$313.85Published — price the day we called it
$351.51Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$349.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$302.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 93% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-3.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-4.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$302.06
last close inside the window, ended March 23, 2026
Peak price
$349.00
peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 23, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$351.51
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$305.00 – $314.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$313.85
published December 23, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet just reported a huge revenue milestone and is seen as a leader in AI, which is boosting investor interest. Price looks like it may be rebounding after a pullback, but some technical signals are still weak, so traders should wait for clearer buying activity before committing big money.

Primary drivers

  • AI and cloud growth is driving investor interest and revenue potential
  • Company hit a $100B quarterly revenue milestone, proving scale
  • Price shows signs of bouncing after a pullback with more buyers appearing
  • Staged buying lowers risk while waiting for clearer confirmation

How it played out

GOOGL: peak stayed below target

Lyra published GOOGL on 2025-12-23 at $313.85, looking for 12% growth to $351.51. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence and cloud growth, a $100B quarterly revenue milestone, a possible rebound after a pullback, and staged buying while waiting for clearer confirmation.

Inside the window, the stock rose to $349 on 2026-02-03, a peak gain of 11.2%. It stayed below the $351.51 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-23, it ended at $302.06. The thesis mostly played out on direction and momentum, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On February 4, 2026, Alphabet reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83bn and earnings per share of $2.82, according to The Guardian. The same report said Alphabet forecast 2026 capital spending between $175bn and $185bn.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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