Adeia Inc. (ADEA) — closed signal from December 22, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 22, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 22 days.
The thesis — published December 22, 2025
Big news confirmed a long-term license with Disney, a legal issue was settled, and management raised next-year sales and profit expectations. That pushed the stock up quickly. The technical move helped momentum, but the business still scores low on fundamentals, so the stock might fall back after the jump. For 0-3 months, prefer buying small pullbacks rather than chasing the spike.
Primary drivers
- Disney license reduces uncertainty and helps future cash flow
- Higher guidance makes investors rethink the companys outlook
- Recent price surge gives momentum but depends on follow-through
- Buying on dips limits risk from a post-news price reversal
How it played out
ADEA: target reached in 22 days
Lyra published ADEA at 15.94 on 2025-12-22 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-22. The thesis expected 20% growth and pointed to a Disney license, a settled legal issue, higher sales and profit expectations, and momentum after a quick move. It also warned that the business scored low on fundamentals and preferred small pullbacks over chasing the spike.
Inside the window, ADEA reached the 19.13 target in 22 days. It later peaked at 23.8 on 2026-03-16, a 49.3% gain, and ended at 23.45. The published thesis played out clearly.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.