Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 22, 2026 — -5.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$177.00 – $184.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$183.08Published — price the day we called it

$216.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$172.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-5.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$172.70

last close inside the window, ended March 22, 2026

Peak price

$197.63

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$216.03

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$177.00 – $184.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$183.08

published December 22, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is central to the AI boom, so many investors watch it closely. Trading activity is high and the recent short-term trend shows some strength, but other timing signals are mixed. A new headline about shipping H200 chips to China could reduce uncertainty and lift expectations. Because momentum is unclear and price swings can be large, a cautious, step-by-step buying plan on dips is recommended over the next few months.

Primary drivers

Nvidia leads AI hardware, attracting capital toward the stock
Shipping H200 chips to China could improve near-term revenue visibility
Heavy trading volume points to strong institutional interest
A scaled buying plan matches mixed timing and volatile price action

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 183.08 on 2025-12-22 with an expected 18% gain. The thesis pointed to Nvidia's role in artificial intelligence hardware, possible H200 shipments to China, heavy trading volume, and mixed timing signals. It also framed the idea as short-term and cautious because price swings could be large.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of 197.63 on 2026-02-25, a peak gain of 8%. That stayed below the 216.03 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-22, the stock ended at 172.70. The thesis partially played out on the early rise, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-17, The Guardian reported that China had blocked H200 chip shipments that the U.S. government had cleared for export. On 2026-03-17, Axios reported that Nvidia was restarting H200 production for sales in China after U.S. approval for limited shipments and licensing.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals