Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from December 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 22, 2026 — +0.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$34.76 – $35.74Entry zone — fair-value band

$35.96Published — price the day we called it

$39.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$41.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 52 days.

At window close

+0.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$36.10

last close inside the window, ended March 22, 2026

Peak price

$41.72

peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$39.19

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$34.76 – $35.74

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$35.96

published December 22, 2025

Confidence

79%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a conservative, income-focused investment that could bounce back. The stock looks oversold and the company just declared a quarterly dividend, which gives buyers a reason to buy on dips. There are strong business fundamentals for a small-cap healthcare landlord, but trading activity is light and technical pressure suggests gains may come slowly over a few months.

Primary drivers

Dividend provides steady income and a price floor for buyers
Oversold condition increases chance of a rebound toward fair value
Healthcare landlord status adds defense versus tech exposure
Higher trading volume would signal stronger follow-through

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 52 days

Lyra published CTRE at $35.96 on 2025-12-22 with a short-term thesis for 10% growth. The thesis pointed to a quarterly dividend, an oversold setup, healthcare landlord exposure, and the need for higher trading volume to show stronger follow-through. It framed the idea as conservative and income-focused, with gains expected to take a few months.

Inside the window, CTRE reached the $39.19 target in 52 days. It later peaked at $41.72 on 2026-02-27, a 16% gain. By 2026-03-22 it ended at $36.10. The thesis played out, even though the move did not hold through the end of the window.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals