Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from December 22, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 22, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,079.95 Published $1,209.54 Target $906.70 Window close $1,133.95 Peak
$1,050.00 – $1,085.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,079.95Published — price the day we called it
$1,209.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,133.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$906.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 42% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$1,133.95
peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$906.70
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 22, 2025 – March 22, 2026

The thesis — published December 22, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,209.54
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,050.00 – $1,085.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,079.95
published December 22, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is seen as a steady growth stock that can help stabilize a portfolio. Strong sales and attention around obesity treatments keep investors interested, and recent analyst coverage supports valuation into the next quarter. Short-term timing is unclear because momentum indicators are weak, so the team prefers buying on dips rather than chasing rallies for a gradual rise over 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Big, steady sales from diabetes and obesity drugs driving demand
  • Analyst coverage keeps attention on 2026 drug milestones
  • Healthcare status makes it less risky if markets wobble
  • Buying after a pullback lowers the chance of a bad entry

How it played out

LLY: target missed after an early 5% peak

Lyra published LLY at 1079.95 on 2025-12-22, looking for 12% growth over 0-3 months. The thesis pointed to steady diabetes and obesity drug sales, attention on 2026 drug milestones, healthcare defensiveness, and buying after a pullback instead of chasing rallies. The target was 1209.54.

Inside the 2025-12-22 to 2026-03-22 window, LLY rose to 1133.95 on 2026-01-08, a 5% peak gain. It never reached the target. By the end of the window it was 906.70. The thesis partially played out early, but the full target missed and the signal ended below its published price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Axios reported that Lilly executives did not expect an oral GLP-1 drug to hurt injectable sales. The same article said Lilly projected 2026 revenue of $80 billion to $83 billion after 2025 revenue of $65.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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