Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from December 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 21, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 21, 2025
Broadcom fell about 19% after its latest quarter, so it may bounce back if selling calms. A major analyst raised the target price to $510, which helps sentiment, but the short-term trend still looks weak. This setup is for staged buying only - wait for signs it has stopped falling before adding shares.
Primary drivers
- Big post-earnings drop could reverse if sellers step away
- Analyst price-target lift can steady investor sentiment
- Strong role in AI and data-center spending supports demand
- Staged buys limit risk while the short-term trend heals
How it played out
AVGO: thesis missed its $401.62 target
Lyra published AVGO at $340.36 on 2025-12-21, with 18% expected growth and a $401.62 target by 2026-03-21. The thesis pointed to a 19% post-earnings drop that could reverse if selling eased, a $510 analyst target that could steady sentiment, demand tied to artificial intelligence and data-center spending, and staged buying while the short-term trend healed.
Inside the window, AVGO reached a $360.66 peak on 2026-01-02, a 6% gain. It stayed below the $401.62 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-21, it ended at $310.51. The published thesis did not play out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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