Track record · closed signal

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BIRK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$47.49 Published $59.36 Target $42.63 Window close $53.53 Peak
$46.00 – $48.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$47.49Published — price the day we called it
$59.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$53.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$42.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$53.53
peak on August 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$42.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 16, 2025 – October 14, 2025

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$59.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$46.00 – $48.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$47.49
published July 16, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Worries about import taxes pushed the share price down and made it cheaper than similar companies. A major brokerage repeated its positive rating on July 16, saying the stock now looks too low. Results come out on Aug 14, and with more than half of sales coming straight from the companys own website, the price could climb toward 60 dollars, or about 25 percent, as clarity returns in the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Shares trade at only 13 times expected 2026 profits, cheaper than rivals.
  • Sharp selloff after tariff talk suggests many sellers already left.
  • Broker Piper Sandler kept its positive view on July 16, boosting confidence.
  • Aug 14 earnings may prove that direct online sales are lifting profit margins.

How it played out

BIRK: rally stayed below the target

Lyra published BIRK at $47.49 on July 16, 2025, with an entry zone of $46 to $48. The thesis expected about 25 percent growth toward $59.36 over a short-term window. It pointed to a cheaper valuation than rivals, a tariff-driven selloff, Piper Sandler's positive view on July 16, and Aug. 14 earnings as a possible check on direct online sales and margins.

Inside the window, BIRK rose to $53.53 on Aug. 22, a peak gain of 12.7 percent. It never reached $59.36. By Oct. 14, it ended at $42.63. The thesis partly played out on the early rise, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 14, 2025, Birkenstock reported results for the three months ended in June. The company said sales rose 16 percent excluding currency effects, total sales were €635 million, and net profit rose 73 percent to €129 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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