The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from December 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 21, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 73% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 21, 2025
Schwab could rise because analysts expect much higher profits next year and investors are moving into financial stocks. Right now many buyers have driven the price up quickly, so it may be safer to wait for a pullback into the $96-$100 zone. If interest rates fall soon, that could help shares move higher.
Primary drivers
- Analyst profit forecast supports higher valuation soon
- Possible interest-rate cuts can help bank-style profits
- Recent buying has kept the uptrend but it looks stretched
- Entering on a disciplined pullback lowers immediate risk
How it played out
SCHW: thesis partly played out but target was missed
Lyra published SCHW at $98.82 on Dec. 21, 2025, with 12% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to higher analyst profit forecasts, possible interest-rate cuts, strong recent buying, and a preference for a pullback into the $96-$100 entry zone before chasing the move.
Inside the window, SCHW rose but did not reach the $110.68 target. It peaked at $107.49 on Feb. 10, 2026, with an 8.8% gain. It never got there. By Mar. 21, 2026, it ended at $94.66. The thesis partly played out, then missed the full target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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