NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 20, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 20, 2025
NVIDIA is leading the market now and has pulled together after recent gains, which means it could move higher if investors favor risk. Ongoing news - strong demand for AI chips and a large supply-chain market forecast - supports growth. The short-term risk is many holders and sudden drops, so prefer buying near price levels where it has held recently.
Primary drivers
- AI data-center demand is the main driver for sales growth
- Expansion in the chip supply chain encourages equipment and spending
- Stock is moving faster than peers over the 0-3 month swing
- Overall chip sector strength is directing money into leading names
How it played out
NVDA: target missed after a 9.2% peak gain
Lyra published NVDA on 2025-12-20 at 180.99 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-20. The thesis expected 20% growth and pointed to artificial intelligence data-center demand, chip supply-chain expansion, faster 0-3 month movement than peers, and chip-sector strength sending money into leading names.
Inside the window, NVDA rose, but it did not reach 217.19. The peak was 197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 9.2% gain. It never got there. By 2026-03-20, it ended at 172.7. The thesis partially played out on the early rise, but missed the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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