Track record · closed signal

Intel Corporation (INTC) — closed signal from December 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$35.50 – $37.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$36.82Published — price the day we called it

$39.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$54.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$43.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 13 days.

Peak price

$54.60

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+48.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$43.87

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

December 20, 2025 – March 20, 2026

The thesis — published December 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$39.77

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$35.50 – $37.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$36.82

published December 20, 2025

Confidence

58%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Intel looks very beaten-down and some traders are optimistic, but the positives are mostly market-wide news not things Intel did. The company's own financial and trend signals are weak, so any bounce could be short-lived in the next 0-3 months rather than a sustained recovery.

Primary drivers

Very oversold price can cause a quick reflex rally
Tech-sector rallies can lift weaker names even without company news
Positive industry forecasts help sentiment but are not Intel-specific
Weak company fundamentals and negative trend increase failure risk

How it played out

INTC: target reached in 13 days

Lyra published INTC at $36.82 on 2025-12-20 with an 8% short-term growth expectation and a $39.77 target. The thesis pointed to an oversold price that could support a quick reflex rally, wider technology-sector rallies, positive industry forecasts, and weak company fundamentals that raised the risk of failure.

Inside the window, INTC reached the target in 13 days. The peak was $54.60 on 2026-01-22, a 48.3% gain. The stock ended the window at $43.87, still above the published target. The thesis played out, and the move went well beyond the expected bounce.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Tom's Hardware reported that Intel was preparing Core Ultra 200K Plus and 200HX Plus processor lineups for a March or April launch. On 2026-01-23, Tom's Hardware reported Intel's fourth-quarter 2025 results, including $13.7 billion in revenue and a $600 million net loss.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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