Track record · closed signal

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) — closed signal from December 20, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HIMS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$33.50 – $36.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$35.56Published — price the day we called it

$41.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$36.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$22.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 16% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$36.45

peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+2.5%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$22.02

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 20, 2025 – March 20, 2026

The thesis — published December 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$41.25

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$33.50 – $36.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$35.56

published December 20, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

HIMS moves more than most stocks and recent investor mood is upbeat, but the company still has work to do on profits, so timing matters. Recent results show strong sales growth and a large Ohio expansion plan, which can help future revenue and scale. Given questions about margins and valuation, use smaller positions and wait for clearer signs the business profits consistently.

Primary drivers

Sales rose 49% to about $600M, showing clear demand
Committed over $200M to Ohio expansion to boost capacity
Recent price rebound could draw more buyers in good markets
Profitability and valuation concerns may limit near-term gains

How it played out

HIMS: target was not reached

Lyra published HIMS at $35.56 on 2025-12-20 with a short-term call for 16% growth to $41.25. The thesis pointed to sales rising 49% to about $600M, an Ohio expansion of over $200M, a recent price rebound that could draw buyers, and profitability and valuation concerns that could limit near-term gains.

Inside the window, HIMS peaked at $36.45 on 2026-01-07, with a peak gain of 2.5%. It never reached $41.25. By 2026-03-20, it ended at $22.02. The published upside thesis missed: the stock only made a small early move above the publication price, then finished well below it.

What happened during the window

On February 19, 2026, Hims & Hers announced a $1.15 billion agreement to acquire Eucalyptus, an Australia-based telehealth provider.

Hims & Hers is spending more than $1 billion in a push to expand globally

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HIMS signals