Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from December 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 20, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 20, 2025
The stock could rebound in the next 0-3 months, but you should be careful. Analysts say the stock is very oversold and investor interest is strong. Recent company news backs the AI growth story: Q4 sales were $18.02B and the company has $73B of AI orders lined up over the past six quarters, and UBS raised its target despite the selloff. Because overall price trend is weak, add shares gradually instead of buying all at once.
Primary drivers
- $73B of AI orders plus strong Q4 sales supporting growth
- UBS raising its target helps positive investor sentiment
- Stock is very oversold, which can lead to a bounce
- Well positioned for AI networking as big cloud companies expand
How it played out
AVGO: the target was not reached
Lyra published AVGO at 340.36 on 2025-12-20 with an 18% expected gain over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to $73B of artificial intelligence orders, Q4 sales of $18.02B, a UBS target raise, oversold conditions, and a possible rebound as large cloud companies expanded.
Inside the window, AVGO rose to a peak of 360.66 on 2026-01-02, a 6% gain. It stayed below the 401.62 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-20, it ended at 310.51. The thesis partly played out early, but the full target missed.
What happened during the window
On 2026-03-04, Broadcom reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $19.31B and adjusted earnings of $2.05 per share. It also guided fiscal second-quarter revenue to $22B. These were reported during the measurement window, but they were not used here as an explanation for the price move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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