Track record · closed signal

Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) — closed signal from December 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GILD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$123.80 Published $138.66 Target $141.11 Window close $157.29 Peak
$120.00 – $125.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$123.80Published — price the day we called it
$138.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$157.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$141.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 39 days.

Peak price
$157.29
peak on February 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+27.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$141.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
39
Window
December 19, 2025 – March 19, 2026

The thesis — published December 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$138.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$120.00 – $125.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$123.80
published December 19, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Gilead is a steady buy-for-holding over the next few months rather than a fast mover. Recent Phase 3 results for a new HIV drug matched a top competitor, and a new senior legal hire may help the company run smoother. Expect gains to come gradually as investors slowly revalue the stock; wider market shifts away from defensive healthcare could limit upside.

Primary drivers

  • New Phase 3 HIV results increase confidence in future drug options
  • Senior legal hire reduces uncertainty about company execution
  • Steady earnings make the stock attractive in volatile markets
  • Weaker buy signals mean gains may be slower and stay in a range

How it played out

GILD: target reached in 39 days

Lyra published GILD at $123.8 on 2025-12-19 with a short-term view and expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to new Phase 3 HIV results, a senior legal hire, steady earnings in volatile markets, and weaker buy signals that could make gains slower and range-bound.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $138.66 target in 39 days. It later peaked at $157.29 on 2026-02-11, with a peak gain of 27.1%. By 2026-03-19 it ended at $141.11, still above the target. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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