Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 19, 2026 — -0.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$179.81 Published $233.75 Target $178.56 Window close $197.63 Peak
$172.00 – $184.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$179.81Published — price the day we called it
$233.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$178.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-0.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-3.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$178.56
last close inside the window, ended March 19, 2026
Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$233.75
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$172.00 – $184.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$179.81
published December 19, 2025
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA pulled back recently because many investors rotated out of AI stocks on 2025-12-19, creating a buying chance. Separate news about a government AI initiative on the same day reinforces longer-term demand for NVIDIA products. The drop looks extended but not fully recovered, so wait for signs the price is stabilizing before buying. Main risk: AI stock valuations could fall further.

Primary drivers

  • Recent selling gives a better chance to buy a market leader
  • Government and big tech projects should keep demand steady
  • Lots of trading volume means price can bounce back quickly
  • Valuation squeezes and macro trends could still push price down

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 179.81 on 2025-12-19 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to recent selling as a better entry in a market leader, government and big tech projects as support for demand, heavy trading volume as a possible bounce setup, and valuation squeezes plus macro trends as the main risk.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of 197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 9.9% gain. It stayed below the 233.75 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-19, it ended at 178.56. The thesis partially played out on direction at the peak, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of 68.13 billion. On 2026-03-16, Nvidia introduced BlueField-4 STX at GTC 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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