Track record · closed signal

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) — closed signal from December 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

ANET price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$127.44 Published $155.48 Target $136.26 Window close $151.80 Peak
$122.00 – $130.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$127.44Published — price the day we called it
$155.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$151.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$136.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$151.80
peak on January 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$136.26
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 19, 2025 – March 19, 2026

The thesis — published December 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$155.48
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$122.00 – $130.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$127.44
published December 19, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arista could bounce in the next 0-3 months because big customers are building AI data centers. On 2025-12-17 Arista and Fortinet announced a joint secure AI data center product, which makes Arista more relevant as AI networks need stronger security. The stock looks oversold and might rally, but news or competition can quickly change the mood.

Primary drivers

  • New Arista-Fortinet product boosts Arista's AI networking story
  • AI data center spending increases demand for Arista gear
  • Recent oversold price could spark a several-week rebound
  • Rival news or downgrades can cause sudden selloffs

How it played out

ANET: target was not reached after a 19.1% peak gain

Lyra published ANET at $127.44 on 2025-12-19 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence data center demand, the Arista-Fortinet secure data center product from 2025-12-17, an oversold setup, and the risk that rival news or downgrades could hurt the stock.

Inside the window, ANET rose to $151.8 on 2026-01-28, a 19.1% peak gain. That stayed below the $155.48 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-19, the stock ended at $136.26. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Feb. 13, 2026, Investors.com reported that Arista had posted fourth-quarter results after the prior close and raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook from 20% to 25%. The same report said expected artificial intelligence-related sales had increased to $3.25 billion for 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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