Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from December 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$35.83 Published $39.77 Target $39.25 Window close $41.72 Peak
$34.17 – $36.14Entry zone — fair-value band
$35.83Published — price the day we called it
$39.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$41.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$39.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 55 days.

Peak price
$41.72
peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$39.25
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
55
Window
December 19, 2025 – March 19, 2026

The thesis — published December 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$39.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$34.17 – $36.14
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$35.83
published December 19, 2025
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust is a steadier, lower-volatility property company that rents healthcare buildings. The recent $0.335 quarterly dividend gives income now and helps limit losses. A valuation review suggested upside value, so investors screening for bargains may notice it. Main risk: rising interest rates could press down REIT prices.

Primary drivers

  • Dividend news gives income and helps protect downside
  • Valuation notes suggest the stock could be seen as undervalued soon
  • Healthcare property rents tend to be steadier than risky tech cash flows
  • Changes in interest rates have the largest effect on REIT values

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 55 days

Lyra published CTRE at $35.83 on 2025-12-19. The thesis expected 12% growth toward $39.77. It pointed to the $0.335 quarterly dividend, possible undervaluation, steadier healthcare property rents, and interest rates as the main risk for REIT values.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 55 days. It peaked at $41.72 on 2026-02-27, above the target, with a 16.4% peak gain. By 2026-03-19, it ended at $39.25. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-06, Investor's Business Daily reported that CTRE's Relative Strength Rating rose from 73 to 83. On 2026-03-16, Barron's reported that CareTrust had raised its quarterly dividend to $0.39 and had reported adjusted funds from operation of $0.47 a share earlier that month.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals