Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$182.36 Published $204.24 Target $152.77 Window close $198.88 Peak
$175.00 – $183.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$182.36Published — price the day we called it
$204.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$198.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$152.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$198.88
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$152.77
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 18, 2025 – March 18, 2026

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$204.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$175.00 – $183.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$182.36
published December 18, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

PLTR is popular with traders right now, but near-term risk is higher because lots of investors are piling into AI names and finance headlines can suddenly change sentiment. Recent news about a failed large AI loan shows funding can shift fast. Price action shows strength and strong trading volume, yet it is not deeply sold off, so prefer buying on small pullbacks and use strict stop limits. Stay on Watch until AI market calm returns and PLTR holds its price level.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing trader interest can keep the price rising if AI sentiment steadies
  • Heavy trading volume indicates real investor participation, not just small spikes
  • Investor confidence in AI is unstable after recent funding news
  • Buying on small pullbacks reduces the chance of larger losses if sentiment flips

How it played out

PLTR: the target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR on 2025-12-18 at 182.36, with 12% expected growth and a 204.24 target. The thesis pointed to trader interest, heavy trading volume, unstable artificial intelligence sentiment after recent funding news, and a preference for small pullbacks with strict stop limits.

Inside the 2025-12-18 to 2026-03-18 window, PLTR peaked at 198.88 on 2025-12-22, a 9.1% gain. That peak stayed below the 204.24 target. The stock ended at 152.77. The thesis partially played out because price rose early, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On February 2, 2026, Palantir reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.41 billion, up 70% year over year, and net income of $609 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PLTR signals