Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026 — +35.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$165.62 Published $192.12 Target $224.71 Window close $256.68 Peak
$160.00 – $166.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$165.62Published — price the day we called it
$192.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$256.68Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$224.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

At window close
+35.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+55%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-1.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$224.71
last close inside the window, ended March 18, 2026
Peak price
$256.68
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
18

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$192.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$160.00 – $166.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$165.62
published December 18, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research could bounce near term because a major bank raised its price target to $200, which can change investor sentiment. A short-term indicator shows the stock is deeply oversold and trading volume is high, often a sign sellers are exhausted. Momentum overall is still down, so treat this as a short-term, staged rebound trade.

Primary drivers

  • Price target increase to $200 gives investors a new valuation reference
  • Deeply oversold signal can lead to a quick multi-week bounce
  • AI-driven equipment demand supports the growth story
  • Heavy volume in weakness hints sellers may be finished

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published LRCX at $165.62 on 2025-12-18, with a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to a major bank raising its price target to $200, a deeply oversold signal, high trading volume, artificial intelligence equipment demand, and the chance of a staged rebound while broader momentum was still down.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $192.12 target in 18 days. It kept rising to a $256.68 peak on 2026-02-25, a 55% gain from publication. By 2026-03-18, it ended at $224.71. The published rebound thesis played out and then went further.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Lam Research reported fiscal second-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $1.27 per share on revenue of $5.34 billion. It also guided to $1.35 per share on $5.7 billion in revenue for the current quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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