Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$54.96 Published $60.46 Target $46.83 Window close $57.55 Peak
$53.50 – $55.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$54.96Published — price the day we called it
$60.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$46.83Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$46.83
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 18, 2025 – March 18, 2026

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$60.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$53.50 – $55.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$54.96
published December 18, 2025
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America is being chosen to bring balance against tech stocks. Recent price signals look positive and there are lots more people buying than usual, suggesting steady interest. News this week is neutral, so the stock could slowly rise over the next 0-3 months if headlines about interest rates and lending stay calm and pullbacks stay small.

Primary drivers

  • Positive recent price signals support steady, gradual buying interest
  • Higher trading volume shows big investors are adding exposure
  • Diversified bank benefits if lending and interest outlooks stay stable
  • Lower volatility helps reduce portfolio swings versus growth stocks

How it played out

BAC: target was not reached

Lyra published BAC on December 18, 2025 at $54.96. The thesis expected 10% growth over 0-3 months. It pointed to positive recent price signals, higher trading volume, a stable lending and interest-rate outlook, and lower volatility as reasons the stock could rise gradually.

Inside the window, BAC rose to $57.55 on January 5, 2026, a 4.7% peak gain. That stayed below the $60.46 target. It never got there. By March 18, 2026, the stock ended at $46.83. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the close.

What happened during the window

On January 14, 2026, MarketWatch reported Bank of America fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 98 cents per share and revenue of $28.4 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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