Track record · closed signal

UP Fintech Holding Ltd. (TIGR) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026 — -20.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$8.30 – $8.95Entry zone — fair-value band

$8.83Published — price the day we called it

$11.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$11.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$7.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-20.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+28.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$7.05

last close inside the window, ended March 18, 2026

Peak price

$11.35

peak on January 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+35%

over the measurement window

Target price

$11.92

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$8.30 – $8.95

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$8.83

published December 18, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

UP Fintech just reported a record quarter with much higher sales and profit, giving a clear reason to believe the business is improving. The stock looks oversold by short-term measures, and recent trading shows more buying interest than usual. Lower volatility than peers means a quicker rebound could be likely over weeks to a few months.

Primary drivers

Record quarter shows stronger sales and profits
Short-term indicators suggest oversold and likely bounce
More customer deposits and assets support growth
China-linked sentiment can boost trading volume

How it played out

TIGR: target was not reached

Lyra published TIGR at 8.83 on December 18, 2025, with expected growth of 35%. The thesis pointed to a record quarter with stronger sales and profits, short-term oversold signals, higher customer deposits and assets, and China-linked sentiment that could lift trading volume.

Inside the window, the stock rose to 11.35 on January 6, 2026. That was a 28.5% peak gain, but it stayed below the 11.92 target. It never got there. By March 18, 2026, TIGR ended at 7.05. The thesis partially played out on the rebound, then missed on the target and the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TIGR signals