Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK-B) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025 — +5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$465.00 – $475.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$472.18Published — price the day we called it

$519.40Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$507.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$495.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$495.97

last close inside the window, ended October 14, 2025

Peak price

$507.66

peak on September 5, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$519.40

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$465.00 – $475.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$472.18

published July 16, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The price has dropped to a level where Warren Buffett often buys back shares, shrinking supply. A rare oversold reading says most sellers are gone. Big investors remain upbeat, and earnings on Aug 2 should reveal very strong insurance profits. After similar dips, the stock usually bounces 6-8% within two months, so a move toward about $510 (roughly 10% higher) looks realistic with little company risk.

Primary drivers

Company buys its own shares at this price, reducing shares available.
A rare oversold reading suggests the drop may be near an end.
Aug 2 earnings should highlight record cash from insurance business.
Very positive mood shows big investors are using the dip to add shares.

How it played out

BRK-B: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published BRK-B on 2025-07-16 at $472.18. The thesis expected 10% growth toward $519.40. It pointed to possible buybacks at that price level, an oversold reading, expected insurance profit strength around Aug 2 earnings, and upbeat large-investor mood around the dip.

Inside the 2025-07-16 to 2025-10-14 window, BRK-B rose to $507.66 on 2025-09-05, a 7.5% peak gain. It never reached $519.40. The signal ended at $495.97. The direction was right, but the target was missed. This was a partial play-out, not a full hit.

What happened during the window

On Aug. 2, 2025, Berkshire reported second-quarter results and a Kraft Heinz write-down. The company also reported that it did not repurchase shares in the quarter.

Berkshire Operating Profits Fall 4% in 2nd Quarter. Company Takes Write-Down of Kraft Equity Stake.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All BRK-B signals