Track record · closed signal

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — closed signal from December 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$870.00 – $890.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$886.30Published — price the day we called it

$992.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$984.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$807.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$984.70

peak on January 16, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+11.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$807.04

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 17, 2025 – March 17, 2026

The thesis — published December 17, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$992.66

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$870.00 – $890.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$886.30

published December 17, 2025

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Goldman shows a clear upward trend and current signals suggest buyers are in control, not sellers. Recent news about big banks hitting record highs and a new co-branded wealth product add to the story that fees could grow. This looks like a steady financials play best bought on small dips, though interest-rate and market swings remain the main risks.

Primary drivers

Upward trend suggests the move can continue over the next quarter
Strength among big banks keeps investor confidence in the sector
New wealth products should help grow fee income over time
Large, liquid stock can better handle choppy market conditions

How it played out

GS: target missed after a near approach

Lyra published GS at $886.30 on 2025-12-17 with a short-term thesis for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to an upward trend, strength among big banks, new wealth products that could help fee income over time, and the stock's size and liquidity in choppy markets.

Inside the window, GS rose to $984.70 on 2026-01-16, a peak gain of 11.1%. That peak stayed below the $992.66 target. The shares then ended the window at $807.04 on 2026-03-17. The thesis partly played out early, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-15, Financial News reported that Goldman's fourth-quarter investment banking fees rose 25%, with advisory revenue up 41%. On 2026-01-26, Business Insider reported that Goldman added seven management committee members from its asset and wealth management business.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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