Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from December 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,055.69 Published $1,203.49 Target $930.35 Window close $1,133.95 Peak
$1,030.00 – $1,060.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,055.69Published — price the day we called it
$1,203.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,133.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$930.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$1,133.95
peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$930.35
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 17, 2025 – March 17, 2026

The thesis — published December 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,203.49
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,030.00 – $1,060.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,055.69
published December 17, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

LLY looks like a chance to buy after a short pullback. Recent company news - strong trial results showing big weight loss and a partnership to speed new drugs - supports the idea that Lilly will keep growing in obesity and related areas. Some trend measures still look weak, so this is a staged buy rather than rushing in. The main risk is that price momentum could stay compressed after a crowded gain.

Primary drivers

  • Strong late-stage drug results boost obesity leadership
  • Partnership speeds development of next drugs
  • A pullback in a big leader often recovers
  • Healthcare safety can draw investor interest

How it played out

LLY: thesis only partly played out

Lyra published LLY on 2025-12-17 at $1055.69. The thesis expected 14% growth, with a target of $1203.49. It pointed to strong late-stage drug results, a partnership to speed development of new drugs, a pullback in a large leader, and healthcare safety drawing investor interest. It also noted weak trend measures and the risk that momentum could stay compressed.

Inside the window, LLY rose to $1133.95 on 2026-01-08, a 7.4% peak gain. It never reached $1203.49. By 2026-03-17, it ended at $930.35. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

In February 2026, Lilly reported higher fourth-quarter profit as demand for Zepbound and Mounjaro rose. On 2026-01-07, The Wall Street Journal reported that Lilly was in advanced talks to acquire Ventyx Biosciences.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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