Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from December 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 16, 2026 — -8.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$78.00 – $82.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$81.83Published — price the day we called it

$94.10Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$88.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$74.66Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-8.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$74.66

last close inside the window, ended March 16, 2026

Peak price

$88.24

peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$94.10

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$78.00 – $82.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$81.83

published December 16, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks like a short-term rebound opportunity but has clear legal risk. Analysts like RBC still recommend buying with a $110 target, and Uber Freight may gain from higher U.S.-Mexico trade. At the same time, a recent lawsuit about billing could limit upside and make the stock swingy. Wait for signs the share price steadies before buying.

Primary drivers

More freight demand from rising U.S.-Mexico trade trends
Analyst support: RBC reiterated a Buy with a $110 target
Legal risk from an amended lawsuit about billing practices
Big price swings make confirmed stabilization important before buying

How it played out

UBER: rebound was partial and target was missed

Lyra published UBER at 81.83 on 2025-12-16. The thesis expected 15% growth, with a target of 94.10. It pointed to freight demand from U.S.-Mexico trade trends, RBC's Buy rating with a $110 target, legal risk from an amended billing lawsuit, and the need for price stabilization after big swings.

Inside the window, UBER rose to 88.24 on 2026-01-08, a 7.8% peak gain. That stayed below the target. It never got there. By 2026-03-16, the stock ended at 74.66. The thesis partially played out because there was an early rebound, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Uber reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, and Investor's Business Daily wrote that the stock fell after mixed results and profit guidance below expectations. On 2026-02-23, The Verge reported that Uber launched Uber Autonomous Solutions to support third-party robotaxi partners with services such as fleet management, regulatory support, and training data.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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