Track record · closed signal

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) — closed signal from December 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

HIMS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$36.59 Published $43.18 Target $24.88 Window close $37.61 Peak
$34.50 – $36.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$36.59Published — price the day we called it
$43.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$24.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 16% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$37.61
peak on December 17, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$24.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 16, 2025 – March 16, 2026

The thesis — published December 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$43.18
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$34.50 – $36.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$36.59
published December 16, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

HIMS is a risky stock that often moves a lot in a short time. Its new weight-management program coming to the UK on Dec 12 gives a clear reason for more sales and investor interest. The stock has fallen a lot already, so it can bounce higher quickly but those bounces often fail. If you buy, use small buys near the stated price zone and be ready to sell fast if the stock doesn't keep moving up.

Primary drivers

  • UK product launch on Dec 12 could boost sales and attention
  • Investor focus on obesity treatments keeps interest high
  • A heavy recent sell-off can lead to quick rebounds
  • Strong competition and mood-driven pricing add downside risk

How it played out

HIMS: the target was not reached

Lyra published HIMS at $36.59 on Dec. 16, 2025, with an expected gain of 18% and a target of $43.18. The thesis pointed to the UK weight-management launch on Dec. 12, continued investor interest in obesity treatments, a possible rebound after a heavy sell-off, and downside risk from competition and mood-driven pricing.

Inside the window, HIMS peaked at $37.61 on Dec. 17, 2025. That was a 2.8% gain, but it stayed below the $43.18 target. It never got there. By Mar. 16, 2026, the stock ended at $24.88. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On Feb. 19, 2026, Hims & Hers announced an agreement to acquire Eucalyptus, an Australian digital health provider. The report said the deal was valued at $1.15 billion and was expected to close in mid-2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HIMS signals