Track record · closed signal

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025 — +14.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MUFG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$12.56 – $13.05Entry zone — fair-value band

$13.14Published — price the day we called it

$14.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$16.09Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$14.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

At window close

+14.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+22.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$14.99

last close inside the window, ended October 14, 2025

Peak price

$16.09

peak on September 30, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$12.56 – $13.05

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$13.14

published July 16, 2025

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares traded in the US dropped 11% after Japan's bond rates jumped, so the stock now looks oversold. Yet investors pay only about 70 cents for each dollar of the bank's net assets and collect a 3.6% yearly dividend. A fresh AI partnership announced on 7/15 should strengthen its digital banking story, and slow, steady rate increases in Japan could quickly boost lending profit. If bond markets calm, a return to $15 within the next three months seems reasonable.

Primary drivers

Shares at 70c per asset dollar plus 3.6% dividend give buyers a safety net.
Several price signals suggest selling pressure is fading and a bounce is near.
A 7/15 AI deal could upgrade the consumer app and draw fresh investor interest.
Gradual rate hikes in Japan widen the gap between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits.

How it played out

MUFG: target reached in 27 days

Lyra published MUFG at $13.14 on 2025-07-16 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to an 11% drop in the U.S.-traded shares, a price near 70 cents per asset dollar, a 3.6% dividend, fading selling pressure, a 7/15 artificial intelligence deal, and gradual rate increases in Japan.

Inside the window, MUFG reached the $14.52 target in 27 days. It later peaked at $16.09 on 2025-09-30, a 22.5% gain. The stock ended the window at $14.99 on 2025-10-14. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MUFG signals