Track record · closed signal

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

MUFG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.14 Published $14.52 Target $14.99 Window close $16.09 Peak
$12.56 – $13.05Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.14Published — price the day we called it
$14.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$16.09Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 27 days.

Peak price
$16.09
peak on September 30, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.99
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
27
Window
July 16, 2025 – October 14, 2025

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.56 – $13.05
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.14
published July 16, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares traded in the US dropped 11% after Japan's bond rates jumped, so the stock now looks oversold. Yet investors pay only about 70 cents for each dollar of the bank's net assets and collect a 3.6% yearly dividend. A fresh AI partnership announced on 7/15 should strengthen its digital banking story, and slow, steady rate increases in Japan could quickly boost lending profit. If bond markets calm, a return to $15 within the next three months seems reasonable.

Primary drivers

  • Shares at 70c per asset dollar plus 3.6% dividend give buyers a safety net.
  • Several price signals suggest selling pressure is fading and a bounce is near.
  • A 7/15 AI deal could upgrade the consumer app and draw fresh investor interest.
  • Gradual rate hikes in Japan widen the gap between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits.

How it played out

MUFG: target reached in 27 days

Lyra published MUFG at $13.14 on 2025-07-16 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to an 11% drop in the U.S.-traded shares, a price near 70 cents per asset dollar, a 3.6% dividend, fading selling pressure, a 7/15 artificial intelligence deal, and gradual rate increases in Japan.

Inside the window, MUFG reached the $14.52 target in 27 days. It later peaked at $16.09 on 2025-09-30, a 22.5% gain. The stock ended the window at $14.99 on 2025-10-14. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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