Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from December 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,047.00 Published $1,130.76 Target $989.12 Window close $1,133.95 Peak
$1,010.00 – $1,050.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,047.00Published — price the day we called it
$1,130.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,133.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$989.12Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

Peak price
$1,133.95
peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$989.12
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
23
Window
December 16, 2025 – March 16, 2026

The thesis — published December 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,130.76
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,010.00 – $1,050.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,047.00
published December 16, 2025
Confidence
76%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

LLY is a steady short-term healthcare pick. Strong demand for its GLP-1 medicines keeps investor interest high, but the stock has pulled back recently, so buying on dips makes sense. Upcoming company visibility and health-policy talk keep the story visible. Expect steady, gradual gains rather than a quick pop.

Primary drivers

  • Strong GLP-1 demand helps earnings and investor confidence
  • JPM Healthcare visibility can set clearer expectations
  • Employer coverage talks keep obesity market attention
  • Lower volatility helps steady a higher-risk portfolio

How it played out

LLY: target reached in 23 days

Lyra published LLY at 1047 on 2025-12-16, with 8% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to strong GLP-1 demand, JPM Healthcare visibility, employer coverage talks around obesity treatment, and lower volatility. It expected steady, gradual gains rather than a quick pop.

Inside the window, LLY reached a peak of 1133.95 on 2026-01-08. That was an 8.3% gain, and it reached the 1130.76 target in 23 days. The later close was weaker, with the stock ending at 989.12 on 2026-03-16. The thesis played out on the measured target, even though the final price gave back the move.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Eli Lilly reported fourth-quarter profit and revenue above analyst expectations, with GLP-1 weight-loss drugs cited in the report. On the same date, Axios reported that Lilly did not expect its planned oral GLP-1 pill to hurt injectable sales.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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