Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from December 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 15, 2026 — -16.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$53.50 – $55.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$55.81Published — price the day we called it

$61.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$46.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 31% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-16.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+3.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$46.72

last close inside the window, ended March 15, 2026

Peak price

$57.55

peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$61.39

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$53.50 – $55.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$55.81

published December 15, 2025

Confidence

63%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

- Checklist: explain the situation simply, show why it matters, suggest a safe approach Bank shares have been rising mainly because sentiment favors value names and recent news about banks using AI to lift productivity. The stock looks a bit stretched short term and many traders are active, so it makes sense to wait for a calm pullback before buying so you get a safer price.

Primary drivers

News: banks using AI to improve productivity and costs
Large trading volume suggests big investors are participating
Changes in interest rate expectations can quickly change bank profits
Market shows the stock is a bit overbought, so patience helps timing

How it played out

BAC: the target was not reached

Lyra published BAC on 2025-12-15 at $55.81 with expected growth of 10% and a target of $61.39. The thesis pointed to bank productivity work tied to artificial intelligence, large trading volume, interest rate expectations, and a view that the stock was a bit overbought, so patience on entry timing mattered.

Inside the window, BAC peaked at $57.55 on 2026-01-05, a 3.1% gain. It stayed below the $61.39 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-15, it ended at $46.72. The thesis partially played out only in the early move, then missed the target and finished lower.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Bank of America reported adjusted earnings of 98 cents per share on revenue of $28.4 billion. MarketWatch said both beat FactSet estimates. The same day, Financial News London reported fourth-quarter equities trading revenue rose 23%, while dealmaking fees rose 1%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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