Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from December 15, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 15, 2026 — +29.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$255.00 – $266.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$264.23Published — price the day we called it

$303.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$395.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$341.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

At window close

+29.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+49.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$341.53

last close inside the window, ended March 15, 2026

Peak price

$395.95

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$303.86

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$255.00 – $266.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$264.23

published December 15, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials looks like a short-term rebound in the chip-equipment industry: recent headlines say AI demand may arrive faster than factories can expand, and a big insider buy was reported. Lots more people are buying than usual, which helps the rally, but the group is volatile after weak forecasts from peers, so this is a buy only if price holds near support.

Primary drivers

AI demand comments point to stronger long-term equipment spending
Insider stake news suggests confidence by insiders at lower prices
Current high buying activity supports the short-term upmove
Group is sensitive to peers and needs broader confirmation

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published AMAT at $264.23 on 2025-12-15 as a short-term rebound call with 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence demand comments, insider stake news, high buying activity, and a volatile peer-sensitive group that needed broader confirmation.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $303.86 target in 28 days. It later peaked at $395.95 on 2026-02-25, a 49.9% gain. By 2026-03-15, it ended at $341.53. The thesis played out, and the move went well past the target before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-12, Applied Materials reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on revenue of $7.01 billion, and guided the next quarter to $2.64 per share on revenue of $7.65 billion. On 2026-02-12, the company also agreed to pay a $252 million civil penalty tied to alleged export-rule violations, without admitting criminal wrongdoing.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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