Track record · closed signal

Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) — closed signal from December 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 15, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

VITL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$36.05 Published $41.82 Target $17.47 Window close $36.10 Peak
$34.50 – $36.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$36.05Published — price the day we called it
$41.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$36.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$17.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 1% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$36.10
peak on December 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$17.47
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 15, 2025 – March 15, 2026

The thesis — published December 15, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$41.82
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$34.50 – $36.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$36.05
published December 15, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Vital Farms jumped after news it will join the S&P SmallCap 600 and raised next-year sales guidance to about $775M. That attracts extra buying from funds and analysts. But many traders piled in fast, so the stock looks overheated now. Do not chase - wait for the price to calm or pull back and for selling pressure to ease before buying for a three-month move.

Primary drivers

  • Index inclusion forces some funds to buy shares, increasing demand
  • Higher 2025 sales guidance shows the company expects continued growth
  • As a consumer food brand, it may fall less in market selloffs
  • Current heavy buying raises risk of a short-term pullback

How it played out

VITL: target missed as the stock fell

Lyra published VITL at $36.05 on 2025-12-15 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth toward $41.82. The thesis pointed to S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion, higher 2025 sales guidance of about $775M, possible consumer-brand resilience in selloffs, and the risk that heavy buying had already made the stock overheated.

Inside the 2025-12-15 to 2026-03-15 window, VITL peaked at $36.10 on 2025-12-15, a 0.1% gain. It stayed below the $41.82 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $17.47. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On Dec. 16, 2025, Vital Farms held its investor day and announced a long-term goal to reach $2 billion in sales by 2030. The same report said management expected revenue of $760 million for the year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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