NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 15, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 15, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 42% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 15, 2025
Nvidia is a leading AI chip maker that recently looked oversold. A 12/15 report says the company may boost H200 production to meet rising China orders, which could lift sentiment. Right now price action is weak, so think of this as a staged buy with more purchases only after upward momentum appears. Buyers defending $170-$178 could spark a fast rebound.
Primary drivers
- Report saying Nvidia may raise H200 production for China demand
- Indicators show selling may be exhausted near current price area
- Strong business profile could pull in buyers if price stabilizes
- Negative trend needs confirmation to avoid a failed bounce
How it played out
NVDA: rebound fell short of the target
Lyra published NVDA at $176.93 on 2025-12-15, looking for 28% growth toward $226.47. The thesis pointed to Nvidia as a leading artificial intelligence chip maker, a report saying it may raise H200 production for China demand, selling that may have been exhausted near the current price area, and buyers defending $170 to $178.
Inside the window, NVDA rose, but not enough. It peaked at $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 11.7% gain, and never reached $226.47. It ended the window at $180.25. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rebounded, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-12-15, Wired reported that Nvidia released Nemotron 3, a family of open models with data and tools for developers. On 2026-02-26, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's fiscal 2026 results, including quarterly revenue of $68.127 billion and annual revenue of $215.938 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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