Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 15, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 15, 2026 — +1.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$170.00 – $178.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$176.93Published — price the day we called it

$226.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$180.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 42% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+1.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$180.25

last close inside the window, ended March 15, 2026

Peak price

$197.63

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 15, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$226.47

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$170.00 – $178.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$176.93

published December 15, 2025

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is a leading AI chip maker that recently looked oversold. A 12/15 report says the company may boost H200 production to meet rising China orders, which could lift sentiment. Right now price action is weak, so think of this as a staged buy with more purchases only after upward momentum appears. Buyers defending $170-$178 could spark a fast rebound.

Primary drivers

Report saying Nvidia may raise H200 production for China demand
Indicators show selling may be exhausted near current price area
Strong business profile could pull in buyers if price stabilizes
Negative trend needs confirmation to avoid a failed bounce

How it played out

NVDA: rebound fell short of the target

Lyra published NVDA at $176.93 on 2025-12-15, looking for 28% growth toward $226.47. The thesis pointed to Nvidia as a leading artificial intelligence chip maker, a report saying it may raise H200 production for China demand, selling that may have been exhausted near the current price area, and buyers defending $170 to $178.

Inside the window, NVDA rose, but not enough. It peaked at $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 11.7% gain, and never reached $226.47. It ended the window at $180.25. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rebounded, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-15, Wired reported that Nvidia released Nemotron 3, a family of open models with data and tools for developers. On 2026-02-26, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's fiscal 2026 results, including quarterly revenue of $68.127 billion and annual revenue of $215.938 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals