Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025 — +5.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$164.96 – $170.96Entry zone — fair-value band

$170.68Published — price the day we called it

$201.38Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$195.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$180.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+5.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$180.02

last close inside the window, ended October 14, 2025

Peak price

$195.61

peak on October 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$201.38

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$164.96 – $170.96

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$170.68

published July 16, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The U.S. has just cleared NVIDIA to sell its new H20 chips to China again, reopening a huge customer base. A research firm thinks this alone could bring in more than $1 billion in extra sales during 2025. Buyers have pushed the share price up 35 % since April, but it often finds footing near $166, which is close to its recent average price. If the tech sector stays upbeat, the stock could aim for about $200 within three months.

Primary drivers

China OKs H20 chip sales, possibly adding over $1 billion in 2025 revenue.
Heavy recent buying and a steady average price line keep the uptrend alive.
Global AI spending keeps climbing, and Nvidia remains the preferred chip maker.
Tech profits may beat forecasts and the overall market still favors taking risk.

How it played out

NVDA: target missed, peak gain was 14.6%

Lyra published NVDA at $170.68 on 2025-07-16. The thesis expected 18% growth within three months, with a target of $201.38. It pointed to renewed H20 chip sales to China, possible revenue of more than $1 billion in 2025, heavy recent buying, support near $166, rising artificial intelligence spending, and a risk-friendly market.

Inside the window, NVDA rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $195.61 on 2025-10-10, a 14.6% gain. It stayed below $201.38. The window ended at $180.02. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-27, Nvidia reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.74 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share. It also approved an additional $60 billion in stock buybacks. On 2025-08-28, reporting said Nvidia's outlook excluded resumed H20 sales to China, while management said sales had not resumed yet.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals