NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 16, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 16, 2025
The U.S. has just cleared NVIDIA to sell its new H20 chips to China again, reopening a huge customer base. A research firm thinks this alone could bring in more than $1 billion in extra sales during 2025. Buyers have pushed the share price up 35 % since April, but it often finds footing near $166, which is close to its recent average price. If the tech sector stays upbeat, the stock could aim for about $200 within three months.
Primary drivers
- China OKs H20 chip sales, possibly adding over $1 billion in 2025 revenue.
- Heavy recent buying and a steady average price line keep the uptrend alive.
- Global AI spending keeps climbing, and Nvidia remains the preferred chip maker.
- Tech profits may beat forecasts and the overall market still favors taking risk.
How it played out
NVDA: target missed, peak gain was 14.6%
Lyra published NVDA at $170.68 on 2025-07-16. The thesis expected 18% growth within three months, with a target of $201.38. It pointed to renewed H20 chip sales to China, possible revenue of more than $1 billion in 2025, heavy recent buying, support near $166, rising artificial intelligence spending, and a risk-friendly market.
Inside the window, NVDA rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $195.61 on 2025-10-10, a 14.6% gain. It stayed below $201.38. The window ended at $180.02. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-27, Nvidia reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.74 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share. It also approved an additional $60 billion in stock buybacks. On 2025-08-28, reporting said Nvidia's outlook excluded resumed H20 sales to China, while management said sales had not resumed yet.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.