Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from December 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$82.00 – $86.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$85.11Published — price the day we called it

$102.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$88.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$73.33Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 19% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$88.24

peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+3.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$73.33

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 13, 2025 – March 13, 2026

The thesis — published December 13, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$102.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$82.00 – $86.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$85.11

published December 13, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber is a more volatile stock that could jump if its robotaxi pilot in Dubai excites investors. The price trend hasn't stabilized yet, so it can swing sharply both ways - expect quick moves and false starts. For the next 0-3 months, it's safer to buy in stages near the stated price area and wait for clear signs of improvement before committing more money.

Primary drivers

News about the robotaxi can lift investor interest and valuation
Large ride and delivery network keeps core revenue steady
If selling calms, price can bounce from recent weak levels
High volatility means quick gains are possible but so are fast losses

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at 85.11 on December 13, 2025, with a short-term window through March 13, 2026. The thesis expected 20% growth. It pointed to robotaxi news as a possible lift for investor interest, the large ride and delivery network as support for core revenue, a possible bounce if selling calmed, and high volatility that could cut both ways.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at 88.24 on January 8, 2026, a 3.7% gain. It stayed below the 102.13 target. By March 13, 2026, it ended at 73.33. The thesis only partially played out, with a small early rise but no target reach.

What happened during the window

On February 4, 2026, Uber reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, and articles said revenue grew 20.1% to 14.37 billion while adjusted earnings missed expectations. On March 12, 2026, Uber, Nissan, and Wayve announced a Tokyo robotaxi pilot planned for late 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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