First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) — closed signal from December 12, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 12, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 31 days.
The thesis — published December 12, 2025
First Majestic mainly follows silver prices. Recent headlines: silver hit a record $60 and AG raised $350M with a convertible note and plans to buy down debt, which eases near-term cash worries. The stock has moved up fast, so timing matters: because silver can swing with interest rates and the dollar, this is best bought on pullbacks and sized small for big price swings.
Primary drivers
- Record silver prices can keep short-term speculative interest high
- New financing and debt plans reduce near-term liquidity risk
- Being tied to a commodity lets the stock jump in risk-on periods
- Big sensitivity to rates and the dollar means smaller position sizing
How it played out
AG: target reached in 31 days
Lyra published AG at $17.04 on December 12, 2025, with 18% expected growth and a $20.11 target. The thesis pointed to record silver prices, new financing, debt plans, commodity-linked upside in risk-on periods, and sensitivity to rates and the dollar. It also said timing mattered because the stock had already moved up fast.
Inside the window, AG reached the target in 31 days. It later peaked at $32.04 on February 27, 2026, for an 88% gain. By March 12, 2026, it ended at $24.63. The published thesis played out, and the move went well beyond the target.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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