Track record · closed signal

Tencent Holdings Ltd. (ADR) (TCEHY) — closed signal from December 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 12, 2026 — -12% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TCEHY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$77.50 – $80.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$78.73Published — price the day we called it

$97.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$82.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$69.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 20% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-12%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$69.26

last close inside the window, ended March 12, 2026

Peak price

$82.44

peak on January 12, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 12, 2025

Predicted growth

+24%

over the measurement window

Target price

$97.63

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$77.50 – $80.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$78.73

published December 12, 2025

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Recent news shows record gaming sales, with overseas game sales up 43%, and a MiniMax Hong Kong IPO story that could lift sentiment for China tech. Analysts expect a short-term rebound, but there are signs of downward technical pressure and ADR trades thinly, so use smaller sizes and limit orders and watch China headlines.

Primary drivers

Record gaming sales and 43% overseas growth could boost short-term sentiment
MiniMax pursuing a Hong Kong IPO may raise overall China tech interest
Recent technical readings suggest a short-term reset that may improve risk-reward
Big stake in HUYA reinforces the story around returning capital to shareholders

How it played out

TCEHY: target was not reached

Lyra published TCEHY at $78.73 on 2025-12-12 with a short-term thesis for 24% expected growth. The thesis pointed to record gaming sales, 43% overseas growth, a MiniMax Hong Kong IPO story, a possible short-term reset in the technical readings, and the HUYA stake as part of the shareholder-return story.

Inside the 2025-12-12 to 2026-03-12 window, the stock rose to a peak of $82.44 on 2026-01-12, a 4.7% gain. It never reached the $97.63 target. By the end of the window it was at $69.26. The thesis partially played out early, then missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TCEHY signals