Track record · closed signal

Campbell Soup Company (CPB) — closed signal from December 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 11, 2026 — -13.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CPB price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$27.17 – $29.12Entry zone — fair-value band

$28.41Published — price the day we called it

$31.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$29.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$24.68Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-13.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$24.68

last close inside the window, ended March 11, 2026

Peak price

$29.99

peak on February 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$31.35

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$27.17 – $29.12

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$28.41

published December 11, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Campbell is seen as a lower-risk packaged-food company that looks underpriced after a recent pullback. Market-based signals suggest selling has slowed and value-focused buyers are returning. Bernstein trimmed its target to $33 but kept a positive view, citing strength in broths and premium snacks. That combination makes a modest rebound from here seem reasonable.

Primary drivers

Above-average composite score makes it an appealing defensive pick.
Market signs show selling may be ending and buyers are reappearing.
Analyst target lowered but positive view points to resilient product lines.
Pays a dividend and has steady cash flow to support returns.

How it played out

CPB: thesis missed as target was never reached

Lyra published CPB at $28.41 on 2025-12-11 with expected growth of 12% and a target of $31.35. The thesis pointed to Campbell as a lower-risk packaged-food company, signs that selling had slowed, a still-positive analyst view after a trimmed $33 target, broths, premium snacks, a dividend, and steady cash flow.

Inside the window, CPB peaked at $29.99 on 2026-02-13, a 5.6% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached $31.35. By 2026-03-11, it ended at $24.68. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-11, MarketWatch reported that Campbell's quarterly net sales fell to $2.56 billion and that the company lowered its full-year outlook. On the same date, The Wall Street Journal reported a decline in snack sales and said Campbell's planned more promotions.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CPB signals