Track record · closed signal

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) — closed signal from December 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SMPL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$18.50 – $19.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$18.85Published — price the day we called it

$25.45Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$22.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$15.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$22.00

peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+16.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$15.01

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 11, 2025 – March 11, 2026

The thesis — published December 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+35%

over the measurement window

Target price

$25.45

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$18.50 – $19.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$18.85

published December 11, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock looks cheap after a one-time accounting loss that changed the story. Price patterns and indicators suggest sellers pushed the stock down too far and it may bounce back if the company keeps selling well. Quarter sales were about $369M and adjusted profits looked solid despite the accounting charge. A new analyst target near $27 shows expectations were lowered, so a sharp rebound could happen if results and guidance stabilize.

Primary drivers

Overall score shows better risk/reward in defensive consumer names.
Multiple price signals point to a likely short-term bounce after the reset.
Company sold about $369M last quarter and profits adjusted for the charge stayed solid.
Analyst target near $27 implies clear upside if demand and guidance hold.

How it played out

SMPL: thesis improved, but target was not reached

Lyra published SMPL on 2025-12-11 at $18.85 with expected growth of 35%. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked cheap after a one-time accounting loss, price signals that suggested a short-term bounce, quarter sales of about $369M, solid adjusted profits, and an analyst target near $27 if demand and guidance held.

Inside the window, SMPL rose to a peak of $22 on 2026-01-08. That was a 16.7% peak gain, but it stayed below the $25.45 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-11, the stock ended at $15.01. The thesis partially played out, then failed by the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SMPL signals