Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from December 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$80.00 – $84.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$83.56Published — price the day we called it

$111.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$88.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$74.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 17% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$88.24

peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+5.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$74.97

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 11, 2025 – March 11, 2026

The thesis — published December 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+33%

over the measurement window

Target price

$111.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$80.00 – $84.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$83.56

published December 11, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber is a large rides, delivery and freight company that is starting to make more profit. After a pullback, signs suggest the drop is a temporary reset, not the end of the trend. New robotaxi projects in Dallas and planned work in San Francisco could improve margins and growth over the next few years, supporting a return toward prior highs.

Primary drivers

Business generating more cash as it matures and grows.
Recent pullback looks like a short-term reset, not a lasting decline.
Robotaxi projects give clear future revenue and margin opportunities.
Positive market sentiment and analyst targets sit above recent highs.

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached by window end

Lyra published UBER at 83.56 on 2025-12-11 with expected growth of 33%. The thesis pointed to a maturing business generating more cash, a recent pullback that looked temporary, robotaxi projects in Dallas and planned work in San Francisco, and positive market sentiment with analyst targets above recent highs.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at 88.24 on 2026-01-08, a 5.6% gain. That stayed below the 111.13 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-11, the stock ended at 74.97. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target by the close.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Uber reported fourth-quarter revenue growth of 20.1% to 14.37 billion and gross bookings growth of 22.5% to 54.14 billion. On 2026-02-04, Uber also named Balaji Krishnamurthy as its next chief financial officer, effective 2026-02-16.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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