Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from December 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$320.00 – $340.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$332.24Published — price the day we called it

$392.04Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$357.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$285.25Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$357.87

peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$285.25

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

December 11, 2025 – March 11, 2026

The thesis — published December 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$392.04

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$320.00 – $340.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$332.24

published December 11, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth is a large, stable healthcare company that fell about 36 percent but now shows signs of stabilizing. Market activity and price patterns suggest more investors are buying than panicking. Management raised guidance and plans premium increases of 20 to 30 percent, and both divisions reported strong sales, helping margins despite legal and Medicare scrutiny.

Primary drivers

High composite score makes UNH a leading defensive recovery candidate.
Recent price behavior shows more buying interest after the drop.
Premium increases and raised guidance aim to improve profit margins.
Strong sales growth at Optum and UnitedHealthcare backs the turnaround plan.

How it played out

UNH: target was not reached by March 11

Lyra published UNH at $332.24 on December 11, 2025, with an 18 percent expected gain over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a large healthcare company that had fallen about 36 percent and was showing signs of stabilizing. It also pointed to buying interest after the drop, raised guidance, planned premium increases of 20 to 30 percent, and strong sales growth at Optum and UnitedHealthcare.

Inside the window, UNH rose to a peak of $357.87 on January 23, 2026, a 7.7 percent gain. It stayed below the $392.04 target and never reached it. By March 11, 2026, it ended at $285.25. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the full target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All UNH signals