Track record · closed signal

The Mosaic Company (MOS) — closed signal from December 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 11, 2026 — +16% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MOS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$23.50 – $26.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$25.12Published — price the day we called it

$33.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$31.28Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$29.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+16%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+24.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$29.15

last close inside the window, ended March 11, 2026

Peak price

$31.28

peak on February 11, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+34%

over the measurement window

Target price

$33.66

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$23.50 – $26.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$25.12

published December 11, 2025

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Mosaic looks positioned for a rebound: it has strong screening scores, recent price weakness, and a nearly 4% dividend. Market signals show the stock recently got cheap and is stabilizing, Barclays keeps a positive view based on expected cash generation, and its price below book value supports a likely move back into the low-mid $30s over a few months.

Primary drivers

Screening ranks Mosaic highly among cyclical stocks.
Recent price weakness looks to be stabilizing and may reverse.
Nearly 3.7% yield and trading below book give a safety margin.
Analyst support and valuation argue for a medium-term rebound.

How it played out

MOS: rebound thesis only partly played out

Lyra published MOS at $25.12 on 2025-12-11 with a short-term rebound thesis. It expected 34% growth and pointed to high cyclical screening ranks, recent weakness that looked to be stabilizing, a nearly 3.7% yield, trading below book value, analyst support, and valuation support for a move into the low-mid $30s.

Inside the window, MOS rose but did not reach the $33.66 target. The peak was $31.28 on 2026-02-11, with a 24.5% gain. It never got there. By 2026-03-11, it ended at $29.15. The thesis partly played out, but the published target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MOS signals