The Mosaic Company (MOS) — closed signal from December 11, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 11, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 11, 2025
Mosaic looks positioned for a rebound: it has strong screening scores, recent price weakness, and a nearly 4% dividend. Market signals show the stock recently got cheap and is stabilizing, Barclays keeps a positive view based on expected cash generation, and its price below book value supports a likely move back into the low-mid $30s over a few months.
Primary drivers
- Screening ranks Mosaic highly among cyclical stocks.
- Recent price weakness looks to be stabilizing and may reverse.
- Nearly 3.7% yield and trading below book give a safety margin.
- Analyst support and valuation argue for a medium-term rebound.
How it played out
MOS: rebound thesis only partly played out
Lyra published MOS at $25.12 on 2025-12-11 with a short-term rebound thesis. It expected 34% growth and pointed to high cyclical screening ranks, recent weakness that looked to be stabilizing, a nearly 3.7% yield, trading below book value, analyst support, and valuation support for a move into the low-mid $30s.
Inside the window, MOS rose but did not reach the $33.66 target. The peak was $31.28 on 2026-02-11, with a 24.5% gain. It never got there. By 2026-03-11, it ended at $29.15. The thesis partly played out, but the published target was missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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