LKQ Corporation (LKQ) — closed signal from December 10, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 10, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 47 days.
The thesis — published December 10, 2025
LKQ's stock fell after being removed from the S&P 500 and is down about 20% this year even though the company still generates steady cash. A Dec 9 valuation put fair value around $52.80, much higher than today's price, suggesting the drop is mainly due to index-related selling. The chart shows heavy recent selling, and if automatic fund selling eases, the stock could bounce toward its intrinsic value in 0-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Index removal caused forced selling despite steady aftermarket business.
- Independent valuation shows price well below estimated fair value.
- Recent heavy selling looks like panic, not business failure.
- Scale and distribution give steady cash through cycles.
How it played out
LKQ: target reached in 47 days
Lyra published LKQ at $28.83 on 2025-12-10, with 25% expected growth and a $36.04 target. The thesis pointed to index removal and forced selling, an independent valuation around $52.80, heavy recent selling, and steady cash from scale and distribution.
Inside the window, LKQ reached a peak of $37.13 on 2026-01-26. That was a 28.8% peak gain, and it reached the target in 47 days. By 2026-03-10, it ended at $31.34. The thesis played out: the stock rose past the target before giving back part of the move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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