Track record · closed signal

LKQ Corporation (LKQ) — closed signal from December 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 10, 2026 — +8.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LKQ price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$27.75 – $29.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$28.83Published — price the day we called it

$36.04Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$31.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

At window close

+8.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+28.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$31.34

last close inside the window, ended March 10, 2026

Peak price

$37.13

peak on January 26, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 10, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$36.04

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$27.75 – $29.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$28.83

published December 10, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

LKQ's stock fell after being removed from the S&P 500 and is down about 20% this year even though the company still generates steady cash. A Dec 9 valuation put fair value around $52.80, much higher than today's price, suggesting the drop is mainly due to index-related selling. The chart shows heavy recent selling, and if automatic fund selling eases, the stock could bounce toward its intrinsic value in 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Index removal caused forced selling despite steady aftermarket business.
Independent valuation shows price well below estimated fair value.
Recent heavy selling looks like panic, not business failure.
Scale and distribution give steady cash through cycles.

How it played out

LKQ: target reached in 47 days

Lyra published LKQ at $28.83 on 2025-12-10, with 25% expected growth and a $36.04 target. The thesis pointed to index removal and forced selling, an independent valuation around $52.80, heavy recent selling, and steady cash from scale and distribution.

Inside the window, LKQ reached a peak of $37.13 on 2026-01-26. That was a 28.8% peak gain, and it reached the target in 47 days. By 2026-03-10, it ended at $31.34. The thesis played out: the stock rose past the target before giving back part of the move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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