Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from December 10, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 10, 2026 — -17.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$175.00 – $185.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$183.72Published — price the day we called it

$235.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$198.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$151.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-17.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.2%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$151.14

last close inside the window, ended March 10, 2026

Peak price

$198.88

peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 10, 2025

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$235.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$175.00 – $185.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$183.72

published December 10, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir just won a $448 million Navy contract and a major bank restated a Buy because the military is using its AI tools more. The stock has pushed higher recently, but buying small dips into the trend could capture gains over the next 0-3 months while limiting risk from high valuations or sudden sentiment swings.

Primary drivers

Large $448M Navy contract improves predictable defense revenue.
Major bank highlights faster military adoption of Palantir's AI tools.
Stock has been rising with strong buying pressure, but short-term overheated signs exist.
Good mix of product strength, sentiment and fundamentals supports further upside.

How it played out

PLTR: target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR at 183.72 on 2025-12-10 with a short-term thesis for 28% growth. The thesis pointed to a $448 million Navy contract, faster military adoption of Palantir's artificial intelligence tools, recent buying pressure, and a mix of product strength, sentiment, and fundamentals. It also noted high valuations and sudden sentiment swings as risks.

Inside the window, PLTR rose to 198.88 on 2025-12-22, a peak gain of 8.3%. That stayed below the 235.16 target. The stock ended the window at 151.14 on 2026-03-10. The thesis only partly played out. It rose early, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On February 2, 2026, Palantir reported fourth-quarter 2025 results, including 1.41 billion in revenue and 0.25 earnings per share. During the window, TechRadar reported that Palantir received a five-year, 1 billion Department of Homeland Security agreement for artificial intelligence and data analytics tools.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PLTR signals