Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from July 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 14, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$279.92 Published $334.69 Target $343.47 Window close $372.88 Peak
$270.04 – $279.96Entry zone — fair-value band
$279.92Published — price the day we called it
$334.69Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$372.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$343.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 51 days.

Peak price
$372.88
peak on September 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$343.47
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
51
Window
July 16, 2025 – October 14, 2025

The thesis — published July 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$334.69
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$270.04 – $279.96
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$279.92
published July 16, 2025
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Broadcom makes high-profit AI chips and, after buying VMware, also earns steady software fees. The share price fell 8 % and is cheaper than similar tech names, yet buying interest remains solid and the price has been calm. Analysts see stronger profits from booming AI demand, while trade tariffs should not hit hard. Because of all this, the stock could bounce back toward $330 within around three months.

Primary drivers

  • Recent buying strength and stable price hint the uptrend is still alive.
  • VMware adds steady subscription income, raising profit levels.
  • Shares trade at 20× future earnings while rivals sit at 25-32×, leaving room to rise.
  • Analysts predict big AI earnings and more money flowing into the stock.

How it played out

AVGO: target reached in 51 days

Lyra published AVGO on 2025-07-16 at $279.92. The thesis expected 20% growth over a short-term window, toward $334.69 within around three months. It pointed to recent buying strength, a stable price, VMware subscription income, a 20x future earnings multiple versus rivals at 25-32x, and stronger profits tied to artificial intelligence demand.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target. AVGO peaked at $372.88 on 2025-09-11, a 33.2% gain, and it took 51 days to get there. It ended the window at $343.47, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-04, Broadcom reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $15.95 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share. On 2025-10-13, OpenAI and Broadcom announced a multi-year agreement to develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom accelerators and systems.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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