Track record · closed signal

Microbix Biosystems Inc. (MBX) — closed signal from December 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 9, 2026 — -11% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MBX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$29.00 – $33.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$31.38Published — price the day we called it

$43.93Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$44.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$27.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 37 days.

At window close

-11%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+43.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-0.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$27.94

last close inside the window, ended March 9, 2026

Peak price

$44.89

peak on January 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 9, 2025

Predicted growth

+40%

over the measurement window

Target price

$43.93

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$29.00 – $33.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$31.38

published December 9, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

MBX is a small, risky healthcare company that looks like it could bounce back because many investors feel positive and the business actually sells diagnostic products. The stock shows signs of being very depressed while still above longer-term support. A new buyback and a partnership on HPV testing add real demand, though a big fund selling adds extra volatility.

Primary drivers

Stock looks very depressed and may snap back up.
Sells diagnostic products, so it has real revenue potential.
Buyback and HPV test partnership should help demand.
A big fund selling raises volatility and needs tight risk control.

How it played out

MBX: target reached in 37 days

Lyra published MBX at $31.38 on 2025-12-09 with a short-term thesis for 40% growth. The thesis pointed to a very depressed stock that could snap back up, diagnostic product revenue, a buyback, and an HPV testing partnership. It also noted that a big fund selling could add volatility and needed tight risk control.

Inside the window, MBX reached a peak of $44.89 on 2026-01-15, above the $43.93 target. The target was reached in 37 days. The stock later ended the window at $27.94 on 2026-03-09. The thesis played out, but the close was weak.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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