RTX Corporation (RTX) — closed signal from December 9, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 9, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 37 days.
The thesis — published December 9, 2025
RTX mixes big aerospace and defense businesses, so it benefits if defense spending keeps rising. Recent trading shows more steady buying but momentum is not strong, so it makes sense to buy on dips rather than chase higher prices. The sector recently reported better sales than expected, so investor mood could improve, but company-specific program and margin worries mean gains are likely to be gradual over the next three months.
Primary drivers
- Charts show steady buying, so ease into the stock rather than chase gains.
- Wide aerospace and defense mix gives exposure to higher defense budgets.
- Recent sector sales beat suggests prices could catch up to results.
- Company program and margin risks mean keep position sizes moderate.
How it played out
RTX: target reached in 37 days
Lyra published RTX at $175.26 on 2025-12-09 with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to steady buying in the chart, exposure to higher defense budgets, a recent sector sales beat, and company program and margin risks. It expected gains to be gradual over the three-month window.
The stock reached the $199.80 target in 37 days. Inside the window, RTX peaked at $214.50 on 2026-03-03, with a peak gain of 22.4%. It ended the window at $208.23 on 2026-03-09. The thesis played out and then went past the target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-01-27, RTX reported fourth-quarter sales of $24.2 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.55 per share. On 2026-02-11, Axios reported that Raytheon, an RTX division, demonstrated its Coyote Block 3 Non-Kinetic interceptor against multiple drones at a U.S. Army exercise.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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