Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from December 9, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 9, 2026 — -14.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$182.01 Published $227.51 Target $156.43 Window close $198.88 Peak
$165.00 – $182.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$182.01Published — price the day we called it
$227.51Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$198.88Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$156.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-14.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-0.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$156.43
last close inside the window, ended March 9, 2026
Peak price
$198.88
peak on December 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 9, 2025

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$227.51
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$165.00 – $182.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$182.01
published December 9, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is seen as a leader in AI tools and has strong buying interest and good market liquidity, but its price already reflects high expectations compared with current results. Recent news of a former senior leader moving to TekStream keeps Palantir in the AI procurement story. For beginners, it's safer to buy on pullbacks instead of chasing higher prices.

Primary drivers

  • Palantir's software is used by governments and companies to organize and analyze data.
  • Strong buying and high visibility confirm it leads the AI software space, but many investors are crowded in.
  • A senior former leader joining TekStream keeps Palantir connected to AI purchasing networks.
  • The stock price is ahead of current results, so use risk limits and prefer buying dips.

How it played out

PLTR: the target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR at $182.01 on 2025-12-09 with a short-term view for 25% growth. The target was $227.51. The thesis pointed to Palantir's role in data software for governments and companies, strong buying interest, high visibility in artificial intelligence software, links to purchasing networks through a former senior leader joining TekStream, and the risk that the price was already ahead of current results.

Inside the window, PLTR peaked at $198.88 on 2025-12-22, up 9.3%. It stayed below the target. By 2026-03-09, it ended at $156.43. The thesis partly played out early, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-03, Palantir reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results. MarketWatch reported that revenue beat analyst expectations and that the company gave a fiscal 2026 revenue forecast above consensus. This was a company report during the measurement window, not a stated cause of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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