Track record · closed signal

Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS) — closed signal from December 9, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 9, 2026 — -28.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SHLS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$7.20 – $8.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$8.02Published — price the day we called it

$10.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$11.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$5.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 70 days.

At window close

-28.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+39.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-0.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$5.75

last close inside the window, ended March 9, 2026

Peak price

$11.16

peak on February 18, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 9, 2025

Predicted growth

+35%

over the measurement window

Target price

$10.83

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$7.20 – $8.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$8.02

published December 9, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

SHLS fell a lot, but there are early signs buyers may be returning. A negative Dec 5 article made people sell, which could mean expectations are too low. If orders and profit margins stop slipping, the stock could rally over a few months because the business sells parts used in solar and storage projects and demand could recover.

Primary drivers

Early technical signs suggest buyers are reappearing after heavy selling.
Shoals sells parts used in solar and storage, so it benefits from energy investments.
A Dec 5 negative article likely pushed the stock down more than fundamentals warranted.
Positive sentiment and solid fundamentals could let the stock rebound once selling pressure fades.

How it played out

SHLS: target reached in 70 days

Lyra published SHLS at $8.02 on 2025-12-09 with an expected gain of 35%. The thesis pointed to early signs that buyers were returning after heavy selling, a Dec 5 negative article that may have pushed expectations too low, and a possible rebound if orders and profit margins stopped slipping.

Inside the window, SHLS peaked at $11.16 on 2026-02-18. That was above the $10.83 target, and the target was reached in 70 days. The peak gain was 39.1%. By 2026-03-09, the stock had fallen to $5.75. The thesis played out on the measured target, even though the move did not hold through the window end.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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