Track record · closed signal

Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) — closed signal from December 9, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 9, 2026 — -42.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VITL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$30.00 – $33.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.38Published — price the day we called it

$45.06Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$36.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$19.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-42.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-0.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$19.10

last close inside the window, ended March 9, 2026

Peak price

$36.10

peak on December 15, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 9, 2025

Predicted growth

+35%

over the measurement window

Target price

$45.06

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$30.00 – $33.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.38

published December 9, 2025

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vital Farms is being added to the S and P SmallCap 600, which means index funds will have to buy its shares quickly. The company is a recognizable branded egg maker with improving profits and positive market sentiment. Expect a short-term surge around Dec 11, so consider waiting for a pullback after the event to aim for a higher price in the next three months.

Primary drivers

Inclusion in S and P SmallCap 600 forces index funds to buy shares on Dec 11.
Recent price action shows sustained upward momentum despite short term overbought readings.
Brand strength and better margins point to improving profit potential and wider distribution.
Dec 9 announcement fixes the timing for a likely near-term jump in volume and visibility.

How it played out

VITL: target stayed out of reach

Lyra published VITL at $33.38 on 2025-12-09, with expected growth of 35%. The thesis pointed to inclusion in the S and P SmallCap 600, expected index buying around Dec 11, recent upward price action, brand strength, better margins, and a Dec 9 announcement that fixed the timing for a near-term volume and visibility event.

Inside the window from 2025-12-09 to 2026-03-09, VITL peaked at $36.10 on 2025-12-15. That was an 8.1% gain, but it stayed below the $45.06 target. It never got there. By the end of the window, the stock was at $19.10. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the full target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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